http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/07/health/policy/07health.html?hp
Interesting article in the New York Times this weekend about how the Republican leadership in the House plans to target Health Reform. They talk about limiting funding to the IRS, blocking insurance regulations, etc. As House Republican whip Eric Cantor says: “If all of Obamacare cannot be immediately repealed, then it is my intention to begin repealing it piece by piece, blocking funding for its implementation and blocking the issuance of the regulations necessary to implement it.”
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Those opposing health reform seem adamant and passionate about repealing the law once the Republican Party takes over the House, but I wonder how much of this campaign to repeal reform will become a reality. Yes, the Republican party has a majority in the House, but in order to repeal some of the provisions, they will still have to go through the Senate, which managed to keep a Democratic majority last week, and President Obama.
In addition, there seems to be growing support from some groups who were unsure about or even opposed to health reform. According to an article in today's California Healthline, small businesses are embracing the tax credits in the health reform law that will be enacted this year and are choosing to provide coverage for their employees.
http://www.californiahealthline.org/capitol-desk/2010/11/are-small-businesses-embracing-reform.aspx
During the health reform campaign, many business owners, small and large, were fearful of the employee mandate and were convinced that this mandate to provide coverage for employees would lead to bankruptcies and lay-offs. The message about the exemptions for small businesses and the tax credits available was often muddled among the opposition's rhetoric about health reform being detrimental to all businesses. It seems that proponents of health reform in Congress were strategic about the way they drafted the law to enact certain provisions that would positively affect key groups in our society first. So far, we have provisions that are being enacted this year that will benefit children, seniors on Medicare, young adults and small business owners. Let’s see if advocates for any of these groups allow any kind of repeal of the law to gain momentum in January.
Most speculators seem to think that a total repeal of the law is unlikely, but there will certainly be plenty of opportunity to make changes to the ACA.
Here is more speculation from Kaiser Health News.
http://www.kaiserhealthnews.org/Stories/2010/November/07/conservatives-repeal-health-law-shorttake.aspx
I think Troy raises a good point:
"There’s a danger to getting rid of the most egregious provisions," said Tevi Troy, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a former top health official in the Bush administration. "It carries a huge political risk" because it would eliminate political momentum to repeal the full law, he said.
I agree in wondering what amount of the ACA will actually be repealed by Republicans. As Angela mentioned, many people are already starting to benefit from the reform. If Republicans take this away, it might cause more harm in terms of public opinion. For instance, a recent report by HHS argues that original Medicare enrolles will save more than $3,500 on average over 10 years. If this is true, seniors, a big proportion of the voting population, will not be happy with Republicans for taking away their potential savings.
Article on Medicare savings:
http://thehill.com/blogs/healthwatch/medicare/127791-hhs-report-health-reform-saves-traditional-medicare-enrollees-3500-over-10-years
I think Berwick (CMS administrator) would agree with you Hue. He is scheduled to testify before congress tomorrow. Here is his prepared statement. I like how optimistic he seems to be about the components of ACA that will advance quality and reduce costs in health care. His stated priorities resonate with much of what we've discussed this semester.
http://www.kaiserhealthnews.org/Stories/2010/November/16/berwick-prepared-testimony-document.aspx
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